Two polls released last week showed Republican Rand Paul leading Democrat Jack Conway in Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race, raising Paul’s lead as calculated by Pollster.com’s polling average to 6.5 percentage points.
The Courier-Journal/WHAS11 Bluegrass Poll showed Paul up by 15 points, while a cn|2 Poll showed him leading by nearly 5 points.
The Bluegrass Poll, an automated telephone survey of 561 likely voters conducted by SurveyUSA, showed Paul leading Conway 55 percent to 40 percent, with 5 percent undecided. The poll, conducted Aug. 30-Sept. 1, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
The cn|2 Poll, a live-interviewer telephone survey of 802 likely voters conducted by Braun Research, showed Paul leading Conway 42.1 percent to 37.4 percent, with 20.4 percent undecided or favoring another candidate. The poll, conducted Aug. 30-Sept. 1, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points.
The latest polling gives Paul a 47.1 percent to 40.6 percent lead over Conway in Pollster.com’s average of all independent polling in the race. We excluded a poll sponsored by the Conway campaign from that average. When it’s included, the average shows Paul at 44.9 percent and Conway at 39.6 percent.
Paul’s 6.5 percentage point lead in the Pollster.com average is up from 6.1 points on August 23.
– John Stamper