SurveyUSA Poll: Conway and Mongiardo in dead heat; Paul up big

A new SurveyUSA poll conducted for The Courier-Journal of Louisville and WHAS-TV in Louisville shows Democrats Jack Conway and Daniel Mongiardo in a statistical tie in Kentucky’s U.S. Senate primary.

Meanwhile, Republican Rand Paul continues to hold a double-digit lead over his main opponent, Secretary of State Trey Grayson.

Here’s the breakdown:

Mongiardo – 38%
Conway – 37%
Undecided – 12%
Price – 7%
Buckmaster – 3%
Sweeney – 3%

Paul – 49%
Grayson – 33%
Undecided – 11%
Martin – 3%
Stephenson – 3%
Scribner – 1%

The automated telephone survey of 662 likely Democratic voters was conducted May 9 to May 11. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points. The automated telephone survey of 440 likely Republican voters was conducted May 9 to May 11. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.

A Kentucky Poll conducted last week by Research 2000 for the Lexington Herald-Leader, WKYT-TV and WAVE-TV showed Mongiardo leading Conway by 7 percentage points and Paul leading Grayson by 12 percentage points.

– John Stamper

Filed Under: Daniel MongiardoElectionsFederal GovernmentJack ConwayPollingRand PaulUS Senate Race

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  1. Nate Hodson says:

    I put very little confidence in these polls. According to our internal polling, Trey is winning by 42 percentage points.


    Nate Hodson
    Trey Grayson Campaign

  2. yeah right says:

    Hey Nate, I hear that the guys that are way behind in the polls never believe them until election night….lol. I bet you will believe it then, and Mitch will have to find him a new buddy….

    And I sure hope that Dr Dan pulls off the win against Conway, because I hate the way Conway missrepresents the facts in his TV spots. He is less than honest and honorable in his approach, and will not doubt be one of the Good Ole Boys if he goes to Washington. We dont need another Kentucky Millionare in Washington…

  3. Thurman Caudill says:

    Im not voting for that Mongardio guy. All he does is complain. I want someone who can get something done. Paul probably is hoping for a Mongardio victory so he has an easier opponent.

  4. yeah right says:

    Well Thurman, we have had two Republicans in Washington in the Senate for the past 12 years or more, and look what that has done for us….If you good with the way things are today, and after the last 12 years, you will probably be happy with sending two Republicans back there….I personally want to vote out all of the Incumbant Politicians, and send some new blood to Washington. And Conway is a slick Lawyer, who represents the People while he takes money from the Gas & Oil Companies that he is suppose to be opposing….not cool..

  5. out west says:

    I love Survey USA because they give the demographics of the data. Notice that the Poll is 22% western and 18% eastern, both areas Mongarido is leading greatly in. Also he leads strong among moderates and conservative demos. Folks, those are the ones who vote, if you don’t believe it how is it that a Democratic state keeps going for the Republican candidate. Next week the HL and CJ will have to report that Mongarido wins by 9%.

  6. Prof. Gilligan says:

    Nate Hodson, of the Trey Grayson Campaign writes: “I put very little confidence in these polls. According to our internal polling, Trey is winning by 42 percentage points.”

    Rrrrrr-iiiiii-ght. Grayson’s up by 42 points. Shhhure, he is.

    Yu a funny guy, Nate.

    Say it with me, Nate: “The Junior Senator from Kentucky, Rand Paul!”

  7. Dan says:

    That’s not really Nate “Baghdad Bob” Hodson. See the YouTube video link.

  8. littleNate says:

    That’s right Big Nate we are going to win!

  9. Kentucky Senate Primary Poll:

  10. Buck Feshear says:

    Actually, the Republicans ought to be very worried about Mongiardo. I’d much rather face Conway in the general election than Mongiardo. Conway is badly out of touch with the average Kentuckian and way too liberal for this state’s electorate. Mongiardo is much more like, and in tune with, the mainstream of Kentucky. He would be a much more formidable opponent for the GOP nominee. Although I can foresee either Democrat eating Paul up on his kooky national defense ideas. Yes, Rand, Iran having a nuke IS a serious problem.